What is the relation between Oil prices, Gold, Stock Markets and Dollar prices?




Gold price, Stock prices, US Dollar and Oil Prices are all asset prices with similar characteristics such as asset price inflation and momentum. They are significantly correlated with each other and with the business cycle. The price of all these assets as determined in the free markets is an important indicator of collective expectations of the future state of the world economy. What investors feel the future might be is reflected by the price of these assets. Let's look into each one in more detail. 
  1. Gold: Gold is the most important store of value today and the most important components of the global economy since 1945. Gold's value remains fairly constant or increases over time, it is hence used as an ideal hedge against inflation. People invest in gold because despite high inflation, it's value does not depreciate [1]

    Gold is also a safe haven asset. Increasing gold prices are a traditional indicator of a recession or a downturn in an economy. People run to the safety of
  2. gold when they think the value of other investments may go down in the future. Indians traditionally hold gold for the same reason, holding savings in gold
  3. immunes people from depreciation in the value of money which they can later use to pay for healthcare etc.
  4. US Dollar: The most important currency in the world today. Most of the trade in oil is invoiced in US Dollar. Whenever India buys oil from Iran, natural gas from Russia and electronics from China, we do not pay them in Rial, Rouble or Yuan, we pay them in Dollars. Similarly, when India sells leather to Australia, they pay us in Dollars. Dollar Rupee exchange rate is thus very important for both imports and export competitiveness. It goes high, consumers suffer, it goes low exporters suffer.
  5. Oil Prices: India is a heavy importer of oil and oil is the most important energy resource. An increase in the global oil prices hurts the Rupee and the Indian economy[2].

  6. Stocks: Stocks are the most interesting of these four assets.  I call them the 'king of good times'.When the economy is doing good or is expected to do good, their value rises, when the economy is doing bad, their value takes a dive. India's individual stock ownership rate is quite low, this adds an extra layer of risk to the Indian stock markets that are affected by global shocks. 

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