Why gold prices are rising?
الجمعة، 19 أغسطس 2016
Dear Friends , As we are getting closer to the launch of our first Multi Strategy fund, I've decided to start writing on a monthly basis by giving some insight and overview on particular strategy, market or product that we find as attractive for long /short term investment.
Here, I will be focusing on my favourite commodity, Gold. not only because I'm buying gold in different forms for almost 2 years but because I find this product as the most stable in times of uncertainty that we are heading too, or even better to say we already in it.
My main views on Gold , it's one of the best insurance policies for wealth preservation because of its lack of counter-party risk, I remember very clearly all those people who held paper instruments during 2008 to 2009 recession that essentially held paper products that had virtually no-bid at the time.
As you all aware, Gold is typically considered a safe haven when markets are volatile, we all saw it after the Brexit vote when the gold rose more to then 10% to a record of 2 years at $1374.71 after Britain choose to leave the EU. and for people that live in the UK they saw the price of gold jumped more than 20% overnight in sterling terms due to the weakening in the GBP .
Interesting enough it wasn't always the case, in the financial crisis of 2008, the bankruptcy of US investment bank Lehman brothers triggered the biggest financial crisis in decades. Stock price fell, many bonds no longer trade. banks do not trust each other and interbank lending stop dead. Queues form in front of several banks and money in withdrawn in panic. One terrifying news item after another is released. The total collapse of the financial system is feared. both Institutional investors and private savers transfer their investments into safe government bonds and gold. and what happens to the gold prices ? it falls.
I remember in 2008, if you wanted to buy gold coins or Bar online, they were in short supply. this raises the question as to whether there is a "secret player " influencing the gold prices.
Rumors that central banks are intervening in the gold market have been have been circulating for many years.
But why should central banks suppress the gold price? they hold a lot of gold and should be interested in a rising price, as that would produce profits for them.
Unlike interventions in the FX markets and bond markets that most of the time are fully disclosed sometimes central banks are engage secret interventions that they expect to be more effective . These interventions do, however, leave traces in prices or on their balance sheets, which come to the attention of market observers and researchers in the past.
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